Investasi China Di Asean Pasca Perang Dagang: Akselerasi Industrialisasi Atau Konsolidasi Ketergantungan Asimetris?
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.38035/jsmd.v4i1.658Keywords:
Investasi China, ASEAN, Perang Dagang, Industrialisasi, Ketergantungan EkonomiAbstract
Penelitian ini membahas peningkatan investasi Tiongkok di kawasan ASEAN setelah terjadinya perang dagang antara Amerika Serikat dan Tiongkok pada tahun 2018. Fokus utama penelitian ini adalah untuk melihat apakah peningkatan investasi tersebut mendorong proses industrialisasi di ASEAN atau justru memperkuat ketergantungan ekonomi yang tidak seimbang. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode kualitatif dengan memanfaatkan data sekunder, seperti buku, artikel ilmiah, dan laporan resmi. Analisis dilakukan dengan melihat perubahan aliran investasi, perpindahan lokasi produksi, serta peran kerja sama ekonomi regional seperti ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa peningkatan investasi Tiongkok belum sepenuhnya mendorong perkembangan industri yang kuat di negara-negara ASEAN. Sebaliknya, yang terjadi lebih banyak berupa pemindahan kegiatan produksi tanpa diikuti oleh transfer teknologi yang berarti. Selain itu, hubungan perdagangan yang tidak seimbang juga menunjukkan bahwa negara-negara ASEAN masih bergantung pada Tiongkok. Oleh karena itu, fenomena ini lebih mengarah pada meningkatnya ketergantungan ekonomi dibandingkan dengan percepatan industrialisasi yang berkelanjutan.
References
Alfi, R., Muawal, F., & Ismail, G. (2023). Hubungan Tiongkok dan ASEAN: Upaya Tiongkok menjadi kekuatan hegemon di Asia Tenggara. TRANSBORDERS: International Relations Journal. https://doi.org/10.23969/transborders.v7i1.10650
Amiti, M., Redding, S. J., & Weinstein, D. (2018). The impact of the 2018 trade war on U.S. prices and welfare. Economia Y Administracion Mirada Fen, (173), 52. https://www.nber.org/papers/w25672
ASEAN Secretariat. (2024). ASEAN investment report 2024: ASEAN economic community 2025 and foreign direct investment. The ASEAN Secretariat. https://asean.org/book/asean-investment-report-2024/
Ba, A. D., & Alice, D. (2006). China-ASEAN relations: The significance of an ASEAN-China Free Trade Area. In China under Hu Jintao: Opportunities, Dangers, and Dilemmas (pp. 311–348). World Scientific.
Ba, H.-L., & Şen, Ö. F. (2024). Explaining variation in national cryptocurrency regulation: Implications for the global political economy. Review of International Political Economy, 31(5), 1472–1495. https://doi.org/10.1080/09692290.2024.2325403
Baur, D. G., & Dimpfl, T. (2021). The volatility of Bitcoin and its role as a medium of exchange and a store of value. Empirical Economics, 61(5), 2663–2683. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-020-01990-5
Baur, D. G., Dimpfl, T., & Kuck, K. (2018). Bitcoin, gold and the US dollar – A replication and extension. Finance Research Letters, 25, 103–110. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2017.10.012
BenSaïda, A. (2023). The linkage between Bitcoin and foreign exchanges in developed and emerging markets. Financial Innovation, 9(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-023-00454-w
Blackwill, R. D., & Harris, J. M. (2016). War by other means: Geoeconomics and statecraft. The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press.
Cerutti, E., Gopinath, G., & Mourighane, A. (2019). The impact of US-China trade tensions. International Monetary Fund (IMF). https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2019/05/23/blog-the-impact-of-us-china-trade-tensions
Chakraborty, D., & Kumar, A. (2012). ASEAN and China: New dimensions in economic engagement. China Report, 48(3), 327–349. https://doi.org/10.1177/0009445512461972
Chahrour, R., & Valchev, R. (2022). Trade finance and the durability of the dollar. Review of Economic Studies, 89(4), 1873–1910. https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdab072
Chavez-Perez, J., Melgarejo-Espinoza, R., Sevillano-Vega, V., & Iparraguirre-Villanueva, O. (2025). Impact of cryptocurrencies and their technological infrastructure on global financial regulation: Challenges for regulators and new regulations. International Journal of Advanced Computer Science and Applications, 16(4), 802–814. https://doi.org/10.14569/IJACSA.2025.016048
Chen, Y., & Chen, J. (2025). Does the development of host country’s digital economy promote China’s OFDI? – Evidence from ASEAN countries. International Journal of Emerging Markets. https://doi.org/10.1108/ijoem-12-2024-2154
Chin, G., & Stubbs, R. (2011). China, regional institution-building and the China–ASEAN Free Trade Area. Review of International Political Economy, 18(3), 277–298. https://doi.org/10.1080/09692290.2011.561129
Emilio. (2022). Pengaruh strategi perang dagang Donald Trump terhadap hubungan dagang Amerika dan Tiongkok. Jurnal Ilmiah Indonesia, 7(12), 16649–16665.
Flores-Castañeda, R. O., Olaya-Cotera, S., Sánchez Atuncar, G., & Iparraguirre-Villanueva, O. (2025). Systematic review of the global impact of cryptocurrencies: Adoption factors, challenges, environmental effects and cyber risks. Quality and Quantity. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-025-02225-4
Gandal, N., & Halaburda, H. (2016). Can we predict the winner in a market with network effects? Competition in cryptocurrency market. Games, 7(3). https://doi.org/10.3390/g7030016
Gilpin, R. (2001). Global political economy: Understanding the international economic order. Princeton University Press.
Gong, X. (2017). Economic statecraft: An assessment of China’s search for influence in Southeast Asia. International Public Policy Studies, 22(1), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.18910/65088
Grieco, J. M. (1988). Anarchy and the limits of cooperation: A realist critique of the newest liberal institutionalism. International Organization, 42(3), 485–507.
Habibie, S. Y., Rudiyanto, R., & Said, B. D. (2025). Navigating asymmetric interdependence: A neoliberal institutionalist perspective on ASEAN-China ties. International Journal of Progressive Sciences and Technologies (IJPSAT), 49(2), 654–660.
He, D., & Yu, X. (2016). Network effects in currency internationalisation: Insights from BIS triennial surveys and implications for the renminbi. Journal of International Money and Finance, 68, 203–229. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2016.07.009
Jiao, Y., Liu, Z., Tian, Z., & Wang, X. (2022). How did the 2018 U.S.-China trade war affect China’s exporters?. [Working Paper].
Keohane, R. O. (1984). After hegemony: Cooperation and discord in the world political economy. Princeton University Press.
Keohane, R. O., & Nye, J. S. (2012). Power and interdependence (4th ed.). Longman.
Khan, R., Dhaliwal, N., Deorari, R., Anoosha, P., Hussein, A., & Alazzam, M. B. (2023). The way to implement cryptocurrency for international payments and remittances. 2023 3rd International Conference on Advance Computing and Innovative Technologies in Engineering (ICACITE), 226–229. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICACITE57410.2023.10183323
Li, H., & Song, T. (2024). Regime dependent dynamics of parallel and official exchange markets in China: Evidence from cryptocurrency. Applied Economics, 56(41), 4952–4973. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2023.2227418
Li, Q., Scollay, R., & Maani, S. (2016). Effects on China and ASEAN of the ASEAN-China FTA: The FDI perspective. Journal of Asian Economics, 44, 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2016.05.001
Liu, M. (2023). An analysis of development opportunities and challenges for China and ASEAN in the post-epidemic era. Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences. https://doi.org/10.54254/2754-1169/39/20231939
Mada, K. (2023, Oktober 3). Indonesia dan negara Asia Tenggara lainnya butuh AS-China yang sehat. Kompas.id. https://www.kompas.id/artikel/asean-butuh-as-china-pulih-dan-berbaikan
Mao, H., & Görg, H. W. (2019). Friends like this: The impact of the US-China trade war on global value chains (Kiel Working Paper No. 2135). https://www.ifw-kiel.de/publications/kiel-working-papers/2019/friends-like-this-the-impact-of-the-us-china-trade-war-on-global-value-chains-12967/
McDowell, D. (2023). Bucking the buck: US financial sanctions and the international backlash against the dollar. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780197679876.001.0001
Medalla, E. M., & Balboa, J. D. (2007). The impact of ASEAN-China FTA Early Harvest Program: The case of the Philippines with focus on short-run effects on the agriculture sector (Research Paper Series No. 2007-01). Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
Middlebrook, P. J., & Tadaa, A. (2024). The rise of China and de-dollarization in a multi-polar digital world. In The Great Power Competition: The Rise of China (Vol. 6, pp. 207–221). Springer Nature. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-70767-4_10
Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR). (2018). Findings of the investigation into China’s acts, policies, and practices related to technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. Executive Office of the President.
Ozili, P. K. (2024). Central bank digital currency and the monetary policy and financial stability implications. In Digital Currency Assets and Challenges to Financial System Stability (pp. 52–62). IGI Global. https://doi.org/10.4018/9798369307700.ch004
Palley, T. (2024). Theorizing dollar hegemony: The political economic foundations of exorbitant privilege. In Dollar Hegemony: Past, Present, and Future (pp. 20–56). Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781035320936.00005
Paudel, P. (2025). Connecting Asia: The rise of China’s Digital Silk Road in ASEAN countries. Realism: Law Review. https://doi.org/10.71250/rlr.v3i2.75
Raicu, S., Costescu, D., Popa, M., & Dragu, V. (2021). Dynamic intercorrelations between transport/traffic infrastructures and territorial systems: From economic growth to sustainable development. Sustainability, 13(21). https://doi.org/10.3390/su132111951
Rodrik, D. (2016). Premature deindustrialization. Journal of Economic Growth, 21(1), 1–33. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-015-9122-3
Salehi, S. H., Shafaee, S. M. M., Golmohammadi, V., & Haji-Yousefi, A. M. (2024). China’s de-dollarization policy and its impact on the hegemony of the US dollar. Countries Studies, 2(2), 189–220. https://doi.org/10.22059/jcountst.2023.367816.1075
Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Statistik (STIS). (n.d.). The Indonesian agricultural performances under China-ASEAN Free Trade Area: Go up or go down?.
Setiawan, A. (2025, Agustus 1). Perang dagang Amerika-China 2025: Analisis implikasi terhadap ekonomi Asia Tenggara. Jurnal Asep Setiawan. https://asepsetiawan.com/2025/08/01/perang-dagang-amerika-tiongkok-2025-analisis-implikasi-terhadap-ekonomi-asia-tenggara/
Skopiec, D. (2025). The prospects for the US dollar as the dominant international currency. Bank i Kredyt, 56(5), 557–592. https://doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0055.3048
Sreevas, V. T. K., Hendra, H., Kulkarni, P., Pandiya, B., & Sharma, A. K. (2024). International cooperation in fintech regulation. In Examining Global Regulations During the Rise of Fintech (pp. 163–186). IGI Global. https://doi.org/10.4018/979-8-3693-3803-2.ch007
Taguchi, H., & Zhao, J. (2022). China’s global value chain linkage and logistics performances in emerging ASEAN economies. International Studies of Economics, 17(2), 126–155. https://doi.org/10.1002/ise3.12
Universitas Airlangga. (2024, Mei 22). Perang dagang Amerika dan China di ASEAN. https://unair.ac.id/perang-dagang-amerika-dan-china-di-asean/
Wu, H., & Riemenschnitter, A. (2018). Introduction. Interventions, 20(8), 1073–1084. https://doi.org/10.1080/1369801x.2018.1538810
Zein, A. W., Siregar, C. M., Haykal, M., & Hasibuan, D. (2026). Neraca perdagangan (balance of trade), neraca pembayaran (balance of payment) dan pinjaman negara: Rumusan masalah tujuan penelitian. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis, 4(1), 459–465.
Zhai, H. (2023). Evaluation of China-ASEAN trade status and trade potential: An empirical study based on a gravity model. PLOS ONE, 18(9), e0290897. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0290897
Zhang, F., Cui, Y., & Campbell-Verduyn, M. (2024). Digital RMB vs. Dollar Hegemony? Friendly Foes in China-US Currency Competition. Journal of Chinese Political Science, 29(3), 483–508. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11366-023-09876-w
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Fauzi Firdaus, Hosea Immanuel Manao, Imel Amanda Maharani Batubara, Nabila Fathia Hasan, , Septania Lowisten Manik
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Hak Cipta :
Penulis yang mempublikasikan manuskripnya di jurnal ini menyetujui ketentuan berikut:
- Hak cipta pada setiap artikel adalah milik penulis.
- Penulis mengakui bahwa Jurnal Siber Multi Disiplin (JSMD) berhak menjadi yang pertama menerbitkan dengan lisensi Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (Attribution 4.0 International CC BY 4.0) .
- Penulis dapat mengirimkan artikel secara terpisah, mengatur distribusi non-eksklusif manuskrip yang telah diterbitkan dalam jurnal ini ke versi lain (misalnya, dikirim ke repositori institusi penulis, publikasi ke dalam buku, dll.), dengan mengakui bahwa manuskrip telah diterbitkan pertama kali di JSMD.
